UFC 113 Preview

This Saturday in Montreal marks the rematch of Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. A super close fight last time with a controversial decision. This weekend we hopefully get to move forward with the light-heavyweight division whether Machida or Shogun wins.

Patrick Cote vs Alan Belcher
Cote is coming off a long layoff due to a knee surgery and a couple of setbacks. His last fight was against Anderson Silva, where he put on a spirited performance but ended up injuring his knee in the 3rd or 4th round. Alan Belcher is coming off a TKO win over Wilson Gouveia and a controversial loss to Akiyama. Belcher is a gamer, and overall he has a good mixture of tools. Patrick Cote has a rock solid chin and a devastating right hand. Belcher has also been known to get hit during his fights, and this could be the downfall for him. The x-factor in this fight is if Patrick Cote has any ring rust. If this fight was 2 years ago, I'd be all over Cote, but due to the circumstances I'ma little skeptical. However, I think Cote will still be able to land on Belcher for a win.

Cote 2nd Round (T)KO

Jeremy Stephens vs Sam Stout
This will be a make or break prediction that could make me look really silly. Sam Stout is going to be all over Jeremy Stephens from bell-to-bell round-to-round this fight will be all Sam Stout. He will work the stand up, go for submissions, and execute takedowns. Nothing will stop him. He will push the pace, dictate the fight, and control the positioning.

Stout Unanimous Decision

Kimbo Slice vs Matt Mitrione
Bet the house on Mitrione. This is going to be a slugfest. These two are going to touch gloves, and proceed to stand in the middle of the octagon and bang. Too bad the banging won't last long with these two beasts. For the little I have seen, Mitrione has a solid enough chin to be able to endure a few of Kimbo's shots in order to land a KO. I don't like Kimbo's chin at all. I think it's weak and vulnerable. Not only will I predict the round for this fight, but I am going to go out on a limb and predict the time. No way does this fight leave the first round and no way does it leave the first 2 minutes.

Mitrione 1st Round KO 1:58

Josh Koscheck vs Paul Daley
In order to predict a fight like this, you have to be able to predict how each fighter will adapt to the other's style, and then predict how they will overcome it. I am having a problem looking at this fight. There are 2 very possible outcomes that I keep seeing in my head, and neither surprise me. On one hand I see Josh Koscheck putting on a wrestling clinic and sticking Daley in the fence for 3 rounds with his athletic ability. On the other hand I see Daley blasting Koscheck with a 1-2 that sends Kos into a grudge match with Dan Hardy. The only way I can make a prediction here is to take the word of Paul Daley and his camp and believe that he will be able to stuff Koscheck's takedowns. If not, than I have been had and this prediction will flop. I have to lean on Daley here because we have all seen Koscheck be susceptible to the hard punch. He tends to get over-confident with his striking which sometimes leaves him vulnerable to the right hand and there is no worse guy to do that with than Paul Daley. I want to cover my ass and say if Daley has no answer for Koscheck's wrestling, than it will be a long tiring night for Daley that will only leave him complaining post-fight about how Koscheck blanketed him. But if he has sprawl he says he does...

Daley 2nd Round KO

Lyoto Machida vs Mauricio Rua
Here's how I see it. Machida will come with nothing different and nothing new. This is no disrespect to Machida, but it isn't his style to adopt a new gameplan. He is an unorthodox fighter who relies on being able to dictate the fight no matter what the situation is. The only thing he'll try to do differently, is alter the distance between Shogun and him. In the countdown show he marveled at how well Shogun kept his distance, not too close, and not too far, right in the middle. This prevented Machida from tying him up for sweeps and clinches and shooting in from afar with his lunging strikes. Two very effective offensive strategies used historically by Machida.

With that said, Shogun knows Machida all too well. He is very familiar with him as a fighter and he is going in to dethrone the beast and take what is rightfully his. The only difference you will see from Shogun is that he will start battering the legs and ribs from the first round a bit more aggressively. This way instead of having Machida worn down by the 4th and 5th, he will have him worn down by the 3rd. His kicks on the countdown show were devastating, and there is no way in hell Machida is looking forward to that.

I don't see Shogun stopping this fight unless Machida is unable to walk out for the 4th or 5th round due to his severely punished legs. Shogun razor thinly and arguably won 3-5 rounds last fight. He is the one who dictated the pace and where the fight took place. Look for him to have less respect for Machida this time and be much more aggressive. But aggressive in a smart way. Not balls to the wall all out brawl style that will get him tagged by the very counter-effective Machida. He will be aggressive and continue to be precise and sharp. My honest opinion. Machida knows his time is about to come to an end.

For a little bit of fun here is my Hail Mary prediction: if Shogun is able to get Machida on his back, he just might be able to GnP his way to victory. Shogun's GnP is ferocious. His lunging strike that he finished Overeem off with is deadly and I wouldn't be surprised if he was able to set up a strike similar to that while Machida was on his back.

Shogun Unanimous Decision (Somewhere at home Cecil Peoples will still have managed to find a way for Machida to win)